Starting on September 19th, Azeri military forces, in violation of a 2020 ceasefire agreement, started surrounding and eventually invading the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, or as it’s known by its Armenian inhabitants “Artsakh”. Nagorno-Karabakh is located in inbetween Armenia and Azerbaijan in region known as the Caucasus, north of the Middle East, and South of Russia. The Government of Azerbaijan stated in a press conference, Armenian militants in the region killed several civilians and soldiers, prompting what the Azeris are calling an Anti-Terrorist Operation into Karabakh.
Nagorno-Karabakh, while recognized by most of the world to be Azeri territory, hosts a large Armenian population which has pinned Armenia and Azerbaijan against each other. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union (of both were former member states of), Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a short war from 1991 to 1994. Armenia appeared the victor and set up the Republic of Artsakh. Artsakh remained an unrecognized state and most of its policy was decided by the Armenian government.
Following the 90s, both countries have changed. Armenia saw little economic growth and would become an ally of Russia. However Azerbaijan would see huge development following the discovery of oil fields on its Caspian Coast. This growth from Azerbaijan allowed it to grow its military resulting in Azeri aggression on Armenian borders and attempting to tighten its grip on Nagorno-Karabakh.
In 2020 there was a short 44 day clash between Armenian and Azeri forces. The conflict ended after Russia managed to broker a ceasefire, and send peacekeepers to the region. Following the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops the peacekeepers left, leaving the opportunity to strike.
The offensive taken out on the 19th and 20th of September is so far the largest attempt by Azerbaijan to take control of the region. The Armenian government has distanced itself from the Artsakh, unable to go to full scale war. Russia once again brokered a ceasefire deal and Artsakh and Azeri representatives met to agree to a resolution.
The conflict has caused many Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh to flee to Armenia. Resources that would normally be available are now no longer in circulation as Azeri forces blockaded the Lachin Corridor, the main road from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh and major choke-point in the region. Upwards of possibly 100,000 Armenians have fled.
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Armenia has become increasingly doubtful of Russia’s commitment to its security. Armenia is a part of a security organization known as the CSTO along Russia, and several other post-Soviet states. With Russia’s lack of a full scale military support during the 2020 invasion, and their lack of commitment to keep peacekeepers in the region following said invasion is making Armenia look for new allies. This tells Russia’s other allies that they are perhaps allying with the wrong power. Earlier in September before the invasion, Armenia and the US began and concluded a military exercise, showing Armenia’s disapproval of Moscow’s politics.