As Election Day approaches, it is clear that this is no ordinary race for the Presidency. Instead, the 2012 election showcases harder decisions that potentially have more impact on our society than any of their predecessors.
In 2008, Obama won 52% of the “independent vote,” versus John McCain’s 44%. The popular vote percentages closely mirrored the independent vote results, as Obama gathered 52.9% and McCain summed 45.7%. It is this mirror-image relationship between the independent and the popular vote that leads to the attractive belief that winning the independent vote is the path to an overall election victory and explains the importance placed by both sides on courting independent voters.
In almost every election, declared political party members have decided who they will vote for before the race begins. Democrats rarely cross party lines to vote for a Republican, and vice-versa. Thus, it is the independent voter who arguably decides who will lead the nation.
Independent voters are often viewed as more “moderate” voters, straddling the line between the extreme views of the parties. In past elections, most successful candidates for president have held positions which were nearer to the center. For example, President Ronald Reagan was fiscally conservative but also socially more moderate. Typically, the successful candidate presents a mixture of ideas and incorporates opinions from both political parties, making a less extreme, easier choice for independent voters.
What’s unique about this election, is that both candidates’ positions are arguably less moderate than in prior elections. Romney and Obama are so dissimilar and clash on important concerns such as health care, women’s rights, taxes, and social issues, that the moderate voters will have a hard decision. Thus, seducing a vote from an independent voter will be a formidable task and predicting where the independent vote will turn in this election will be difficult. With the Presidential debate starting Wednesday, enticing the independent voters will be a critical facet in the election of either candidate. Let the debates begin.